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iKS-RATING: DATACOM EQUIPMENT MARKET IN RUSSIA AND CIS

In 2009, as leading operators cut their investment programs and non-carrier companies radically decrease their ICT spending, the datacom equipment market in Russia and CIS is expected to shrink by about 20% to $650 mln. Yet there are reasons to expect that the market will demonstrate double-digit growth next year, and within next 2 years sales of datacom equipment would exceed pre-crisis levels.

The datacom equipment market includes IP, MetroEthernet, and enterprise-class data networking hardware – routers of all levels, MSWAN equipment, VPN and access level solutions.

In 2008 the datacom equipment sales in Russia and CIS grew 17% to $810 mln (calculated in vendor prices). In carrier-grade segment, 4 vendors shape the major part of the market – Cisco, Juniper, Alcatel-Lucent, and Huawei. In enterprise-class segment, while Cisco’s leading position is even more distinct, the rest of the market is more fragmented, with Allied Telesyn, Alcatel-Lucent, HP, and a set of other vendors (3Com, D-Link etc.) being strong in specific market niches.

The market is formed primarily by carriers and large non-carrier consumers, including businesses and government organizations. As a country with the largest economy and relatively high solvent demand, Russia is the leading buyer of datacom equipment, forming ¾ of the total market. This regional structure has existed since the datacom market was formed, and is expected to remain generally unaltered in the future.

Datacom equipment market volume and dynamics

In 2009, as leading operators cut their investment programs and non-carrier companies radically decrease their ICT spending, the datacom equipment market is expected to shrink by about 20%.

At the same time, there are reasons to expect that the market will demonstrate double-digit growth next year, and within next 2 years sales of datacom equipment would exceed pre-crisis levels. This should be ensured by combination of favorable factors, which, should the scenario of “a second wave” of crisis not be realized, would ensure growing demand for datacom equipment.

Consumer broadband market growth 

The economic crisis had only limited impact upon consumer broadband market. In 1H2009 Russia had 1.5 mln net growth of consumer broadband subscriber base, and for all 2009 net growth is expected to reach 3.2 mln. Viewing this, a number of carriers continued their expansion into new regions and IP networks construction in their regions of presence – although in smaller scale than it was planned a year ago.

Similar situation is seen in other CIS countries - both Ukraine and Kazakhstan show 18% subscriber growth in 1H2009 with forecasted 36-40% for all 2009.

Corporate broadband market 

The corporate sector demonstrated greater vulnerability to economic situation. 4Q2008-1Q2009 was a period of datacom services market stagnation in business segment, with some reports of revenue decline. Yet there are grounds for moderate optimism even in this sector. A number of leading carriers report slow but stable month-to-month growth of revenue from IP services, mainly internet access and VPN. As a result in CIS in 2Q2009 broadband access revenue in corporate sector grew 1%.

Potential sources of growth

Additional impact to datacom equipment market growth in Russia and CIS could be given in the near future by the developments expected to be implemented in the market in the near and mid-term future:

• Implementation of the suspended projects of network construction as leading operators continue their regional expansion;

• Networks upgrade and replacement of existing infrastructure by all-IP networks as the “big 3” mobile operators and other leading carriers strive to provide fixed and mobile services based on unified transport infrastructure;

• Implementation of government programs to build information society, including E-government and other national projects

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